The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• The Credit Bubble Everybody’s Ignoring. Federally backed student loans and mortgages are seeing increased defaults. Taxpayers are on the hook. – Wall Street Journal
• Reform the Federal Home Loan Banks to finance the housing America needs – Brookings
• The housing “bubble” in the late 2000s looks quaint by comparison now – Alec Stapp
• AEI National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index: March 2026 – AEI 
• Event: Vanishing Tax Credits and a Shrinking Market: Who Can Afford to Rent? – Chicago Fed
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in March; Up only 0.7% Year-over-year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales – Calculated Risk
• When’s the Best Time to Buy a Home? It depends on whether you prioritize selection or price – Home Economics
• A Bill Aimed at Creating Homes Is Leaving Plots Empty Instead. The Senate housing bill would severely restrict build-to-rent homes. It is already causing projects to pause and financing to dry up. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Increased to 1.502 million Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
• Home Building Shows Signs of Stabilization with Monthly Gain in Starts – NAHB
• A strong month in a fragile market. March data shows momentum, but a build-to-rent crackdown and tighter capital markets threaten to stall future supply – Slow Boring
• Federal Threats on the Horizon Are Killing Housing Supply Growth Now – Cato  
• Why Texas Is Winning the Housing War. Rents are falling in Texas — and the reason is simpler than you think. Derek Thompson, a contributing writer at The Atlantic, tells the Opinion columnist Ezra Klein how Dallas and Austin have shown that the only real cure for a housing crisis is an aggressive, unrelenting surge in supply. – New York Times
• U.S. Housing Starts Rose in March. For February, housing starts fell – Wall Street Journal

On other developments:    

• A troubling plan to revive the frozen US property market. Buyers should beware the real estate dark pools – FT
• Bipartisan House coalition pressures leaders on housing bill. 76 House lawmakers warn investor limits in Senate housing bill could curb supply, squeeze renters and derail affordability push. – Politico
• Congress May Finally Recognize That Mobile Homes Aren’t Really That Mobile. An obscure federal rule requires manufactured homes to be built on a chassis, making them more costly. A bill in Congress would remove the mandate, enacted five decades ago. – New York Times
• Nearly 4 in 5 Americans Don’t Feel Their Financial Future Is Secure. Owning a Home Could Be the Fix – NBER
• Event: Housing Abundance, Where Jobs Sleep, and Good Neighbors Market Intelligence – AEI
• Government Benefits Reduce Housing Cost Burdens – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Aging Homeowners Poised to Reshape Housing Market in Key Cities – Realtor.com
• Homeownership Rate Ticks Down in Early 2026 – Realtor.com
• This Isn’t Your Grandpa’s Housing Market. Are you mad your iPhone costs more than a flip-phone? Then you shouldn’t be so frustrated with home prices either. – Wall Street Journal
• How the War in Iran Is Hurting the U.S. Housing Market. Buyers across the country are cautious, while the Miami market seems immune. – New York Times

From a VoxEU post by Pablo García Guzmán, Anton Grahed, Beata Javorcik, and Helena Schweiger:

“The pursuit of export-led growth through manufacturing has become increasingly difficult in the face of growing global competition. A shift towards service export-led growth offers new opportunities, but it also demands investments in human capital, infrastructure, and institutional capacity. This second column in a three-part series explores the emerging service export model, its potential for growth, and the policy strategies needed for countries in the EBRD regions to successfully navigate this transition.”

From a paper by Davide Furceri, Georgios Karras, and Khatereh Yarveisi:

“We use the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to estimate the dynamic effects of uncertainty on the current account balance for a large sample of 143 developed and developing countries, during the period 1973–2021. Our analysis shows that higher uncertainty is associated with an increase in the current account balance which reflects both increased saving and reduced investment. These effects are sizable and statistically significant, peaking one year after the uncertainty shock, and gradually dying out in the long run. The effect varies across countries, being larger in countries characterized by lower social expenditure, less developed financial markets, and during periods of high financial stress.”

From a paper by Hao-Chang Yang, Gen-Fu Feng, and Xia Chen:

“This study uses unbalanced panel data from 43 developed and emerging market economies from 1985 to 2021 to examine the different effects of geopolitical risks on cross border capital flows. The findings reveal the following: First, developed economies are largely insulated from geopolitical shocks and exhibit a statistically significant risk aversion effect only in the low tail of the capital flow distribution, primarily preventing severe capital outflows during turbulent periods. Second, emerging and developing economies experience sharp declines in FDI and significant increases in FPI when geopolitical risks rise, reflecting speculative hot money seeking risk premiums rather than fundamentals driven capital. Third, a structural break analysis reveals that the 2008 financial crisis shifted global capital logics, causing mature economies to lose their immunity to FDI withdrawals while emerging markets increasingly attract FDI through supply chain restructuring. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that higher FinTech penetration in emerging markets unexpectedly increases the negative effect of geopolitical risks on FDI by lowering withdrawal costs, whereas capital account restrictions mitigate these declines. These findings underscore how geopolitical fragmentation reshapes the composition of global finance, suppressing productive capital and fueling speculative volatility.”

On cross-country:

• Are Houses Losing Ground Across Europe? – Visual Capitalist

Working papers and conferences:

• An Olympic opportunity for social housing policy: Lessons from the Athens 2004 Olympic Village – VoxEU
• The regional and demographic profile of housing affordability: Evidence from Greek households – CEPR

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crisis Set to Worsen on Iran War Fallout – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Outlook for Canada Existing-Home Sales Deteriorates on War-Fueled Jump in Rates. The Canadian Real Estate Association says sales in March fell for a fifth straight month, while prices recorded their 14th straight month-over-month decline – Wall Street Journal
• [India] Mumbai’s Skyline Is Soaring. So Is the Pressure on Housing. As global businesses pour into India’s financial capital, millions of low-income residents face redevelopment deals that will determine whether they can stay. – Bloomberg
• [India] India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Mauritius] Mauritius Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Ukraine] Ukraine’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Home Prices Post First Declines After Post-Pandemic Boom – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why tensions in the Middle East are keeping British mortgage rates high – LSE
• [United Kingdom] Property asking prices rise in April despite higher UK mortgage rates. Increase indicates resilience in housing market even as Iran war led to surge in energy costs – FT
• [United Kingdom] House prices in London’s wealthiest boroughs suffer double-digit decline. Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea property valuations sink close to 2013 levels – FT